What happened to house prices after the last nine Budgets?

Research by ValuQ: we took HM Land Registry's UK House Price Index for every month from January 2016 to July 2026 and measured the change in the UK average price over the six months after each of the last nine autumn Budgets and Autumn Statements, against the usual change for the same six calendar months.

Every autumn, owners thinking about selling ask whether the Budget will knock their price. The next one is on Wednesday 28 October 2026. History gives a calmer answer than the headlines do.

What did house prices do after each Budget?

The UK House Price Index is the official measure of house prices, built from every completed sale registered with HM Land Registry. The table compares what happened after each event with what normally happens in those months, because prices rise and fall with the seasons anyway.

Averaged across all nine, prices ended 0.5 points below their usual seasonal change. Six of the nine finished within 2.5 points of normal, which is the kind of movement any six months can produce.

Which Budgets were followed by a real fall?

The two in autumn 2022. At the start of September 2022 the average two-year fixed mortgage stood at 4.24%, according to Moneyfacts; within two weeks of the mini-budget on 23 September it had passed 6%.

The UK average price then fell for four months in a row, from £265,727 in September 2022 to £255,885 in March 2023. Higher monthly payments meant buyers could borrow less, so they offered less.

In nine Budgets since 2016, the clear falls in house prices both came when mortgage rates jumped.

What explains the other big moves?

• October 2021 (up 5.4% in six months): the market was in the middle of the rise that began in 2020, and prices kept climbing whatever the Budget said.
• October 2024 (down 1.9%): stamp duty thresholds fell on 1 April 2025, from £250,000 to £125,000 for most buyers and from £425,000 to £300,000 for first-time buyers, so many buyers rushed to complete in March and April prices dipped.
• November 2025 (up 0.4%): prices moved almost exactly as they normally do over winter and spring.

Why does it take months for a Budget to show up in prices?

Land Registry records a price on the day a sale completes, not the day it is agreed. Rightmove reported on 31 July 2026 that the average sale takes 154 days from agreement to completion, so a sale agreed the week after a Budget usually completes about five months later.

That is why we measured six months rather than one. A shorter window would mostly show sales that were agreed before the Budget happened.

What does this mean if I am thinking of selling this autumn?

The tax measures reported so far are unlikely to move prices on their own. Stamp duty changes were ruled out for this Budget in July, and on 20 October Property Industry Eye reported that the Chancellor, John Healey, has ruled out raising capital gains tax rates.

The figure to watch is the cost of a mortgage. Moneyfacts put the average two-year fix at 5.93% and the five-year fix at 5.95% in October 2026, up from 5.59% and 5.63% a month earlier. If borrowing costs jump after 28 October, that would matter more to your buyers than anything in the speech.

1. Watch fixed mortgage rates in the fortnight after the Budget, not the headlines on the day.
2. Check whether any property measure takes effect immediately or from a future date; most start months later.
3. Look at what homes like yours have actually sold for nearby in the last six months.
4. Get a current valuation, because today's price is the starting point for every decision that follows.

How can I find out what my own home is worth either side of the Budget?

A national average hides your street. Rightmove's 19 October 2026 index put the average asking price at £371,015, with agreed sales 8% lower than a year ago and the most homes for sale at this time of year since 2014, so the price that counts is the one local buyers will pay for your home.

ValuQ gives UK homeowners free, side-by-side property valuations from competing local estate agents. You describe your home once, local agents value it, and agents never get your details until you choose. It is free, always, whether you sell before the Budget, after it, or not at all.

How we did this

ValuQ queried HM Land Registry's UK House Price Index for the United Kingdom, monthly, January 2016 to July 2026, on 20 October 2026. For each autumn Budget, Autumn Statement and the September 2022 mini-budget, we measured the change in the average price from the month of the event to six months later.

The usual change is the average change over the same six calendar months in the other years from 2016 to 2025. 2019 and 2020 had no autumn Budget, so they appear only in the seasonal averages. The analysis shows what happened after each event; it does not prove the Budget caused it.

Common questions about house prices and the Budget