The towns going backwards as Britain's housing recovery splits in two

Research by ValuQ: we analysed HM Land Registry's record of every home sold in 44 English towns during 2024 and 2025, then set that town-by-town picture against the national house price indices published this week.

What did ValuQ find?

The national mood this week is one of quiet recovery. Nationwide reported annual house price growth of 2.2% in the year to June 2026, up from 1.7% in May, and Zoopla put the annual figure at 1.4%. Both framed the story regionally: strong in the north, soft in the south.

Our reading of the sold-price record adds a sharper detail. The average sold price is the mean price of the homes that actually completed in a town over a year. Measured that way, the recovery is not regional at all. It is a town-by-town lottery, and neighbouring towns are moving in opposite directions.

Which towns went backwards in 2025?

In nine of the 44 towns we checked, the average home sold for less in 2025 than in 2024. Crawley saw the steepest fall, with the average price down 1.7% (about £6,568). Luton, Watford, Gloucester and Exeter all slipped by around 1% or more, with Preston, Middlesbrough, Northampton and Leicester just behind.

• Crawley, South East: down 1.7% (about £6,568)
• Luton, East of England: down 1.3% (about £3,993)
• Watford, South East: down 1.2% (about £5,337)
• Gloucester, South West: down 1.1% (about £3,407)
• Exeter, South West: down 1.0% (about £3,642)
• Preston, Middlesbrough, Northampton and Leicester: down between 0.5% and 0.6%

Why don't these match the regional averages?

A regional index blends dozens of towns into one number, so it can only ever tell you the average of averages. Our town-level cut shows what that hides. In the East of England, Chelmsford was the strongest riser in the whole table at 5.1%, yet Luton, in the same official region, went backwards. In the South East, Slough rose 4.6% (an average gain of more than £19,000) while Crawley, also South East, posted the biggest fall of any town we measured.

The commuter belt around London tells the clearest version of this story. Chelmsford, Slough, Southend-on-Sea, Maidstone and Basildon were all among the risers, while Watford, Crawley and Luton were among the fallers. Same commuting distance, same broad market, opposite fortunes.

What does this mean if you're selling?

It means the headline number is the wrong tool for your decision. A national or regional figure can be positive while your own town, street or type of home is flat or down, and the reverse is just as true. Two things follow for sellers.

• Price on local evidence, not the national mood. What matters is what homes like yours have actually sold for nearby in the last few months, not whether the country is up 2.2%.
• Get more than one view. In a split market, agents can read the same street very differently, and the gap between valuations is widest exactly when the trend is unclear. Comparing several valuations side by side is how you find the honest number.

What does it mean if you're buying?

For buyers, the split is an opportunity to ask harder questions. If a town is among the fallers, an asking price set months ago may no longer reflect what the market will pay, and there is room to negotiate on the evidence. If it is among the strongest risers, a home that looks expensive against last year's sales may still be fairly priced against this year's. Either way, the recent sold record for that specific town is the anchor, not the regional trend.

The national headline is comforting, but it is not the number that matters to a seller. Two towns in the same region can move in opposite directions in the same year, and an average smooths all of that away. The only figure worth acting on is what your own home would fetch today, on the evidence of what has actually sold near you. Evren Ergin, founder of ValuQ.

How we did this

ValuQ analysed HM Land Registry Price Paid data, the official record of completed residential sales in England and Wales. For each town we took every standard residential sale priced between £40,000 and £1,500,000 (a filter that removes data-entry errors and non-market transfers) and calculated the average sold price for the 2024 and 2025 calendar years. We used complete calendar years because the most recent months of Land Registry data are still being registered and would understate current prices and activity. Average sold prices reflect the mix of homes that sold in each town, so they show the direction of a local market rather than a like-for-like index. National figures are from the Nationwide House Price Index (released 1 July 2026) and the Zoopla House Price Index (published 30 June 2026). Data accessed 4 July 2026. This is part of ValuQ Property Watch, our weekly research series.

ValuQ is a UK platform that gives homeowners free, side-by-side property valuations from competing local estate agents, so sellers can compare on merit before they choose anyone.