Five-year swap rates top 4.5% for the first time since October 2023, raising the risk of autumn mortgage repricing

Five-year swap rates climbed above 4.5% in the week to 4 September, their highest level since October 2023, as a global bond sell-off pushed 10-year gilt yields to around 5.29% - a level last seen in 2008. Swaps are what lenders use to price fixed-rate deals, so moves of this size tend to feed through to fixed mortgage pricing within days rather than months. For buyers, particularly first-time buyers and anyone remortgaging this autumn, the affordability calculation could tighten just as the September market normally picks up; for sellers, it argues for pricing realistically rather than waiting on a bounce. The caveat is scale: swaps have risen roughly 0.1 percentage points over the week against around 0.5 points during March's volatility, and the average two-year fix still stands at 5.59% - a modest upward drift, not a repricing shock.