MacroImpact 5/9 · medium21 October 2026 at 07:00

UK inflation rises to 3.5% in September from 3.1% as motor fuel prices push transport costs up, ONS finds

Consumer prices rose 3.5% in the year to September 2026, up from 3.1% in August, the Office for National Statistics reported on 21 October, with services inflation up to 3.7% from 3.4% and core inflation up to 2.8% from 2.6%. Transport, mainly motor fuels, made the largest upward contribution, and a higher reading two weeks before the Bank of England's next rate decision makes a near-term cut harder to justify, which tends to keep the swap rates behind fixed mortgage pricing elevated. For buyers, that points to mortgage costs staying high through the autumn rather than easing quickly; for sellers, it means affordability pressure on the buyer pool is unlikely to lift soon. Much of the rise is fuel-driven rather than broad-based, so one month's figure does not by itself settle the direction of rates.

What this means for…

Buyers· 2/3

Sellers· 1/3

Wider market· 2/3

Each axis scored 1 (minor) to 3 (major). Total 5/9.

Source

Office for National Statistics

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