UK GDP grows 0.4% in July as services carry the quarter, six days before the September MPC

ONS figures published this morning show monthly GDP grew 0.4% in July 2026, following 0.3% in June and no growth in May, with output up 0.4% across the three months to July. Growth that steady gives the MPC no reason to ease when it meets on 17 September, and with markets currently pricing the next Bank Rate move as a rise rather than a cut, it keeps upward pressure on the swap rates lenders price fixed deals from. For buyers, that makes the recent run of upward repricing more likely to continue than reverse; for sellers, firmer growth supports transaction volumes but does not deliver the cheaper borrowing that would lift what buyers can offer. Monthly GDP is volatile and routinely revised, and the three-month detail is narrower than the headline implies, with services up 0.6% while production and construction each fell 0.5%.