Moneyfacts puts worst-case mortgage cost swing at £3,380 a year under 'Trumpflation' inflation path

Moneyfacts modelling on 6 May puts a worst-case 'Trumpflation' path at 6.2% inflation and a 5.25% Bank Rate, lifting average mortgage rates to 6.75% — roughly £3,380 a year more on a £250,000 repayment mortgage versus pre-conflict levels. The mechanism is the steady 1.5–1.75% spread between Bank Rate and headline mortgage pricing, which feeds policy moves into borrower bills quickly. For buyers, that is the gap between affording today and being squeezed if oil stays above $120; for sellers, it widens demand uncertainty into summer. Markets are still pricing the central 'higher for longer' case, not the worst.